The 3rd Northern Forum FWG Meeting:
Comprehensive Approach to the Monitoring and Forecasting of Flood Situations in Northern Rivers
Report thesis
By V.Ageev, chief manager of the Lensky BVU of the Russian hydrologic system.
The working area of the Lensky BVU is extended over the Lena basins and other rivers flowing into northern seas.
The problem of flooding in the arctic rivers and preventing a deleterious effect of waters is one of the main aims so the forces of the management are sent to solve this problem annually.
A monitoring of half flooded and flooded regions covered by the Lensky BVU hasn't been made. In a worked out by the Lensky BVU scheme of a complex usage and protection of water resources of the Lena river basin the flooded settlements were investigated by the Yakut construction engineering investigations trust.
On the first stage in 2002 being considered as the major one the issue “The prevention of the harmful influence of waters” was made.
All the settlements on the Lena river and its major tributaries Aldan, Viluy, VItim and Olekma are considered in the issue. The total amount of the settlements are 222, the optimal socio-economic conclusions on protection of the flooded settlements are suggested.
On the Lena basin the amount of the flooded settlements is 95 (43% from the total amount of settlements) with the population of about 400 thousand people (63% from the total amount of the population).
For solving the problem of flood water in the territory Lensk-Yakutsk it is necessary to start a fundamental study of designing and building a collecting tank which will prevent the ice blocking and the high level of flood water.
The Lensky management considers that solving this problem will help to forecast the flooding situations on the Lena river.
With the aim of forecasting the floods, prevention and minimization of a harmful influence of waters the following work have been made in 2004 by the Lensky BVU under the treaty with “Yakutagropromproekt”:
• a complex of observations of the Lena river in the regions Lensk, Yakutsk ;
• a creation of a geoinformational system (GIS )- Lena ;
• a creation of a computer technology, a numerical model in the Lena river region Lensk with an extension of 157km;
As a result the principles of a computer modeling have been worked out on the basis of which a computer model of the 157km long section of the Lena river in the Lensk region was made.
In 2005 the Lensky BVU together with the “Yakutagroproproekt” institute and the “Aniko P” worked out a theme “A complex of soft wares based on the GIS technologies and the computer hydrodynamic model of the Lena river section from the Tabaginsky cape to the Peschany mountain, I and II stages”.
The results of research efforts on creating the 150km Lena river section model are listed.
By the end of works the Lenky BVU will be given the ready computer models by which the systematic calculations of different scenarios of hydrologic situations' development will be made.
For a complex solution of flood problems in the northern rivers the issues of goal-oriented programs for the period from 2006-2008 were worked out:
- Prevention and decrease of flood damages and other harmful influence of waters in the Lensky BVU territory.
- Safety of the water system and the hydrological constructions in the Lensky BVU territory.
- Supplying the population and the economic units with water in the Lensky BVU territory.
It is significant that these programs are financed by the executive body of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia).
In 2004 the Lensky BVU under the Yakut State University treaty worked out a strategy of protecting the settlements and the economic units of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) from floods for the republic program “The protection of the settlements and the economic units of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) from floods”. Te working committee for working out this program was formed but now it came to stagnation.
Thus for solving the problems of monitoring and forecasting which aim to prevent and to decrease the damage of the most terrible disaster – flooding of settlements and economic units a complex approach is required with the participation of various services: municipal, republic, federal and international.
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