Shtyrov to be the Russian President?

Russian president Vladimir Putin put a new twist in speculation about his likely successor when he hinted that the next president may be a governor . Vlast analytical weekly decided to take a closer look at the current and recent governors to see what he may have had in mind.

Photo by Oleg Nikolaev Commersant about V.Shtyrov's chances: "President of Yakutia Vyachselav Shtyrov was the head of the ALROSA diamond company. Putin may think that the former diamond king will not encroach on other realms – such as Gazprom. Shtyrov already has successful experience with choosing a successor. In 2002, when federal authorities decided to unseat Yakutian president Mikhail Nikolaev, they called on Shtyrov to run against him. Shtyrov did not let him down. Another plus for Shtyrov is that he is not involved in Kremlin power struggles." [Shtyrov's bio]

Qualifications – A Formality

Putin characterized his successor as “a decent and honest person with a high level of professional qualities and work experience who has proven himself well and positively either in a region or at the federal level” in his interview with the eight leading media of the G8 countries. Moreover, he seemingly casually suggested that “some governor might get elected.” This is the most specific characterization of his successor that Putin has given so far. Our limitless trust in the president and conviction that he never says anything casually has led us to make a list of current governors.

There are 85 of them in Russia. Verifying their decency and honesty is beyond the present scope, but we used the criterion of work experience to exclude new appointments. The list was thus shortened by 14.

The next criterion we chose ourselves. One obvious characteristic of the next president, we believe, will be his Russianness. It is unlikely that the president of Russia will have a non-Slavic name. That eliminates another 17, including such celebrities as Ramzan Kadyrov and Roman Abramovich.

We suggest that Putin will not chose a veteran governor to succeed him. The heavyweights who came into power under First President of Russia Boris Yeltsin are obvious inappropriate as successors. Another 32 are removed from the list this way. Those include Yury Luzhkov , whose future activities Putin defined last week when he assigned him to solve the problem of cheated depositors. Until that problem is solved, Luzhkov will remain mayor of Moscow.

The obvious next criterion is loyalty to the president and his circle. Loyalty is a relative concept. The current elite all show their loyalty to the president regardless of party of regional affiliation. But we will exclude from formal loyalty all Communist governors. There are only two regional leaders who are current members of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. Two more have a compromising Red past. They have already thought better of it and joined the ranks of the United Russia Party, but we suggest that that is not enough to wipe the slate clean. The president of the Republic of Mari El is a member of the LDPR . That party is probably the closest to the president, as can be seen from the appointment of Duma member from the LDPR Vladimir Churov chairman of the Central Elections Commission. Churov's strong side was that he worked with the president in the St. Petersburg mayor's office. President Markelov cannot boast such experience, so we have to exclude him too. besides those with the wrong party ties, we obviously have to remove from the list politicians with ties to circles and clans other than the president's. A so-called Luzhkov circle of governors exists. Out they go.

There are governors who came to office due to their membership in regional elites and not for personal service to the president. The governors of Astrakhan, Sakhalin and Magadan regions died in office, and were replaced by their deputy governors. Those inheritors are excluded by us as too distant from the president.

There is one more group of governors who can be crossed off the list. Those are governors who came to power against the Kremlin 's will. It is unlike that Putin, who eliminated elections for governors, would give a nod to regional heads who won against United Russia candidates. Most of them joined the party since then, but the stigma of former opposition will not wash off. Therefore, we exclude three more governors, who unseated United Russia governors. There are three governors in that group, and we will add Maritime Territory Governor Sergey Darkin (he defeated presidential representative Konstantin Pulikovsky's choice Gennady Apanasenko) and Moscow Region Governor Boris Gromov (who defeated Kremlin-supported Gennady Seleznev).

Straw Men

After that careful selection process, we are left with ten current governors. To that list we will add those who were governors until the recent past and were recently promoted to federal positions. (“Regional or federal experience,” the president said.) There are three such people. The first is Vladimir Yakovlev, who was governor of St. Petersburg until he was made deputy prime minister in 2003. He now works in the Ministry of Regional Development. The second is former governor of Perm Region Yury Trutnev, who became minister of natural resources in 2005. The third is Sergey Sobyanin, former governor of Tyumen Region and now chief of the presidential executive staff. That is our short list of candidates. We compiled the list based on the assumption that elections will be held in March 2008. The president said in the same interview that increasing the term of office of the presidency would be “acceptable.” Moreover, as relations between Moscow and Washington deteriorate, the Kremlin is becoming less concerned about the West's reaction to a third term or a change in the date of the elections. It can be noted that Putin himself fits his description of his successor.

Succession Potential of the Governors

Yeltsin-Era
Sergey Katanandov (Karelia)
Nikolay Merkushkin (Mordovia)
Alexander Volkov (Udmurtia)
Alexey Lebed (Khakassia)
Nikolay Fedorov (Chuvashia)
Alexander Chernogorov (Stavropol Territory)
Viktor Ishaev ( Khabarovsk Territory )
Evgeny Savchenko ( Belgorod Region )
Vyacheslav Pozgalev ( Vologda Region )
Viktor Shershunov ( Kostroma Region )
Oleg Bogomolov ( Kurgan Region )
Valery Serdyukov ( Leningrad Region )
Oleg Korolev ( Lipetsk Region )
Yury Evdokimov ( Murmansk Region )
Mikhail Prusak ( Novgorod Region )
Viktor Tolokonsky ( Novosibirsk Region )
Leonid Polezhaev ( Omsk Region )
Alexey Tchernyshev ( Orenburg Region )
Egor Stroev ( Orel Region )
Vasily Botchkarev ( Penza Region )
Vladimir Chub ( Rostov Region )
Konstantin Titov ( Samara Region )
Eduard Rossel (Sverdlovsk Region)
Oleg Betin ( Tambov Region )
Victor Kress ( Tomsk Region )
Petr Sumin ( Chelyabinsk Region )
Anatoly Lisitsyn ( Yaroslavl Region )
Yury Luzhkov (Moscow)
Nikolay Volkov (Jewish Autonomous Area)
Alexander Filipenko ( Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Area )
Yury Neelov (Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Area)

Newcomers
Alexander Berdnikov (Republic of Altai)
Alexander Karlin ( Altai Territory )
Oleg Chirkunov (Perm Territory)
Alexander Tishanin ( Irkutsk Region )
Alexey Kuzmitsky (Kamchatka Region)
Mikhail Men ( Ivanovo Region )
Georgy Boos ( Kaliningrad Region )
Vyacheslav Nogovitsyn (Buryatia)
Pavel Ipatov ( Saratov Region )
Vyacheslav Dudka ( Tula Region )
Vladimir Yakushev (Tyumen Region)
Nikolay Kolesov ( Amur Region )
Oleg Kozhemyako (Koryak Autonomous Area)
Valery Potapenko (Nenets Autonomous Area)

Non-Russian
Aslanchery Tkhakushinov (Adygea)
Murtaza Rakhimov ( Bashkortostan )
Mukhu Aliev (Dagestan)
Murat Zyazikov ( Ingushetia )
Arsen Kanokov (Kabardino-Balkaria)
Kirsan Ilyumzhinov (Kalmykia)
Mustafa Batdyev (Karachaevo-Cherkesia)
Vladimir Torlopov (Komi)
Taimuraz Mamsurov (Northern Ossetia)
Mintimer Shaimiev (Tatarstan)
Sholban Kara-ool (Tyva)
Ramzan Kadyrov ( Chechen Republic )
Aman Tuleev (Kemerovo Region)
Ravil Geniatulin ( Chita Region )
Bair Zhamsuev (Agin-Buryat Autonomous Area)
Roman Abramovich ( Chukotka )

Disloyal
Nikolay Vinogradov ( Vladimir Region )
Nikolay Maksyuta ( Volgograd Region )
Alexander Mikhailov ( Kursk Region )
Anatoly Artamonov ( Kaluga Region )
Leonid Markelov (Mari El)
Valery Shantsev ( Nizhny Novgorod Region )
Alexander Zhilkin ( Astrakhan Region )
Ivan Malakhov ( Sakhalin Region )
Nikolay Dudov (Magadan Region)
Nikolay Kiselev ( Arkhangelsk Region )
Mikhail Kuznetsov ( Pskov Region )
Georgy Shpak (Ryazan Region)
Sergey Darkin (Maritime Territory)
Boris Gromov (Moscow Region)

Perspective Candidates
Alexander Tkachev ( Krasnodar Territory )
Valentine Matvienko (St. Petersburg)
Alexander Khloponin ( Krasnoyarsk Territory )
Dmitry Zelenin ( Tver Region )
Vyacheslav Shtyrov (Sakha Yakutia)
Sergey Morozov ( Ulyanovsk Region )
Viktor Maslov ( Smolensk Region )
Vladimir Kulakov ( Voronezh Region )
Nikolay Denin ( Bryansk Region )
Nikolay Shaklein ( Kirov Region )

Resource: Commersant.com